MARQUETTE POLL: Wisconsin’s major races very tight heading into election day

MILWAUKEE, Wis. (WBAY) - Wisconsin’s major races are dead heats heading into the Nov. 8 general election.

A Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday shows neck-and-neck races for Wisconsin governor and U.S. Senate.

In the Senate race, 50 percent of likely voters support Republican incumbent Ron Johnson to 48 percent for Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes. In October, it was Johnson 52 percent to Barnes 46 percent.

In new Marquette Law School Poll, 50% of likely voters in WI support Republican incumbent Ron Johnson in the Senate race and 48% support Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes. In early October, August, it was Johnson 52% and Barnes 46%. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

Among all registered voters polled, it’s Johnson 48 percent and Barnes 45 percent.

CLICK HERE to view the full poll.

In the race for governor, 48 percent of likely voters support Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and 48 percent support Republican challenger Tim Michels. In October, it was Evers 47 percent and Michels 46 percent.

In the race for governor, new Marquette Law School Poll finds 48% of likely voters support Democratic incumbent Evers and 48% favor Republican challenger Tim Michels. In early October, among likely voters, it was Evers 47% and Michels 46% among likely voters. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

Among all registered voters polled, it’s Michels 45 percent to Evers 44 percent.

Independents support Evers 47 percent to Michels 46 percent, and Johnson 53 percent to Barnes 46 percent.

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Craig Gilbert, Fellow at Marquette University and longtime Journal Sentinel political writer, sorts out the last poll before election day

In general, voters don’t have an overwhelmingly favorable opinion of any of the candidates:

Evers: 44 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable

Michels: 36 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable

Barnes: 40 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable

Johnson: 43 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable

Do the candidates care about people like you? Among registered voters, for Evers, 52% say yes, 40% say no. For Michels, 43% say yes, 46% say no. For Barnes, 49% say yes, 42% say no. For Johnson, 43% say yes, 49% say no. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

Which candidate for governor better understands the problems faced by ordinary Wisconsinites? Among registered voters, 48% say Evers, 44% say Michels. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

Which candidate for senator better understands the problems faced by ordinary Wisconsinites? Among registered voters, 44% say Barnes, 45% say Johnson. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

The top issue for voters is inflation. Sixty-eight percent of voters polled say they are “very concerned” about inflation. Other top issues are public schools, crime, gun violence, accurate vote count, abortion, taxes, illegal immigration, and coronavirus.

“Very concerned” percentages for other issues: public schools, 62%; crime, 57%; gun violence, 56%; accurate vote count, 56%; abortion policy, 52%; taxes, 48%; illegal immigration, 40%; coronavirus, 16%. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

Levels of concern vary widely by partisanship. Top five concerns (% who are “very concerned”) among Republicans: accurate vote count, 81%; inflation, 80%; crime, 79%; illegal immigration, 71%; and taxes, 62%. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

Top five concerns (% who are “very concerned”) among Democrats: abortion policy, 81%; gun violence, 76%; public schools, 62%; accurate vote count 38%; inflation, 38%. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

Abortion remains a very partisan issue with most Democrats opposing the overturning of Roe v. Wade and a major of Republicans supporting the Supreme Court decision that sent abortion rights down to the states.

Opinion on overturning Roe by partisanship: Among Democrats, 4% favor overturning Roe, 92% oppose. Among Republicans, 72% favor overturn, 22% oppose. Among independents, 35% favor, 52% oppose. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

Most voters polled support abortion in cases of rape or incest.

Overwhelming support overall for allowing abortions in cases of rape or incest. In total, 84% favor that, 10% oppose. Among Republicans, 73% favor, 21% oppose. Among Democrats, 97% favor, 3% oppose. Among independents, 83% favor, 8% oppose. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

There is strong support for increasing funding for local police among both Democrats and Republicans.

There is very high support for increasing state funding for local police in Wisconsin. Overall, it’s 78% in favor, 15% opposed. Among Democrats, it’s 58% in favor, 32% opposed. Among Republicans, 95% in favor, 2% opposed. Among independents, 80% in favor, 12% opposed. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

Most voters polled believe Wisconsin is going in the wrong direction.

34% overall think Wisconsin is going in the right direction, 58% think the state is on the wrong track. In early October, it was 31% right track, 63% wrong track. In September, it was 40% right track, 53% wrong track. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2022

The poll was conducted from Oct. 24 to Nov. 1 and 802 registered voters were surveyed. Of that number, 679 call themselves likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters is +/- 4.8 percent. For all registered voters, it’s +/-4.6 percent.

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